TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estádio do Marítimo
Marítimo14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Alverca9th place
MAR 26%X 27%ALV 47%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Alverca lead by 131 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Alverca 1.8 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.6
Over 2.552%
Both teams score55%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.79X27%3.73247%2.14
Double chance
1X53%1.88X274%1.361273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.552%1.94Under 2.548%2.07BTTS yes55%1.81BTTS no45%2.23

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marítimo · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →