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Primeira Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Famalicão11th place
VSC 39%X 29%FAM 32%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Famalicão -0.4.
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 65% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.1
Over 2.542%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
139%2.59X29%3.43232%3.11
Double chance
1X68%1.47X261%1.631271%1.41
Goals
Over 2.542%2.40Under 2.558%1.72BTTS yes49%2.06BTTS no51%1.94

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Famalicão1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

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Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Famalicão14 March 20261-2
Famalicão – Vitória de Guimarães26 October 20252-0
Famalicão – Vitória de Guimarães8 February 20250-0
Vitória de Guimarães – Famalicão1 September 20242-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Famalicão9 March 20241-0
Famalicão – Vitória de Guimarães8 October 20231-3