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Primeira Liga · Matchday 34Sunday 16 May · 16:00 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Rio Ave16th place
MOR 47%X 28%RAV 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Moreirense lead by 85 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Moreirense 2.0 points per game, Rio Ave 0.8.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.1
Over 2.549%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Moreirense win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
147%2.11X28%3.59225%4.04
Double chance
1X75%1.33X253%1.901272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.549%2.05Under 2.551%1.95BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Rio Ave1-1 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Rio Ave – Moreirense16 February 20261-2
Moreirense – Rio Ave13 September 20253-1
Moreirense – Rio Ave13 April 20250-2
Rio Ave – Moreirense30 November 20243-2
Moreirense – Rio Ave2 March 20240-0
Rio Ave – Moreirense1 October 20230-4