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Primeira Liga · Matchday 19Sunday 24 January · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Casa Pia17th place
BEN 83%X 12%CPA 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 340 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Casa Pia 1.2.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 94% of the time
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 22% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 4%
Expected goals2.9 – 0.6
Over 2.567%
Both teams score43%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
183%1.20X12%8.1725%21.14
Double chance
1X95%1.05X217%5.891288%1.14
Goals
Over 2.567%1.49Under 2.533%3.03BTTS yes43%2.34BTTS no57%1.75

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Casa Pia2-0 probability 12.9%

Form

Compare →
BenficaWWLWW

Head to head

Casa Pia – Benfica17 August 20260-7
Casa Pia – Benfica6 April 20261-1
Benfica – Casa Pia9 November 20252-2
Casa Pia – Benfica25 January 20253-1
Benfica – Casa Pia17 August 20243-0
Casa Pia – Benfica17 March 20240-1