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Primeira Liga · Matchday 19Sunday 24 January · 16:00 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Arouca5th place
MOR 30%X 29%ARO 42%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 66 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arouca 0.0, Moreirense -0.9.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 61% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 71% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.1 – 1.4
Over 2.547%
Both teams score52%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.36X29%3.48242%2.41
Double chance
1X58%1.71X270%1.421271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.547%2.14Under 2.553%1.87BTTS yes52%1.92BTTS no48%2.09

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arouca – Moreirense16 August 20264-0
Moreirense – Arouca21 March 20260-1
Arouca – Moreirense2 November 20250-2
Arouca – Moreirense24 January 20251-0
Moreirense – Arouca18 August 20243-1
Moreirense – Arouca17 March 20241-0