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Primeira Liga · Matchday 19Sunday 24 January · 16:00 · Estádio do Marítimo
Marítimo14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Famalicão11th place
MAR 24%X 26%FAM 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Famalicão lead by 170 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Famalicão 1.4 points per game, Marítimo 0.2.
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 54% of the time
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.6
Over 2.550%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Famalicão win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
124%4.24X26%3.83250%1.99
Double chance
1X50%2.01X276%1.311274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.550%1.99Under 2.550%2.01BTTS yes53%1.88BTTS no47%2.13

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marítimo · Columns: Famalicão1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

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Head to head

Famalicão – Marítimo16 August 20261-2
Famalicão – Marítimo22 April 20233-2
Marítimo – Famalicão6 November 20220-0
Marítimo – Famalicão20 February 20220-1
Famalicão – Marítimo18 September 20210-0