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Primeira Liga · Matchday 19Sunday 24 January · 16:00 · Estádio José Gomes
Estrela Amadora12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Low confidence
Alverca10th place
EAM 34%X 29%ALV 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Alverca 1.8 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • Alverca lead by 86 rating points.
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 64% of the time
  • If Alverca score first, they win 67% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.3
Over 2.548%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Alverca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
134%2.95X29%3.51238%2.66
Double chance
1X62%1.60X266%1.511271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.548%2.10Under 2.552%1.91BTTS yes53%1.87BTTS no47%2.15

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Estrela Amadora · Columns: Alverca1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

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Head to head

Alverca – Estrela Amadora15 August 20262-2
Alverca – Estrela Amadora31 January 20261-1
Estrela Amadora – Alverca25 August 20252-2