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Primeira Liga · Matchday 32Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction3-0High confidence
Rio Ave16th place
BEN 83%X 13%RAV 5%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica lead by 349 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Benfica 1.5, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • Last 5 games: Benfica 2.4 points per game, Rio Ave 0.8.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 21% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 3%
Expected goals3.1 – 0.7
Over 2.573%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score3-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
183%1.21X13%7.9925%20.12
Double chance
1X95%1.05X217%5.721287%1.14
Goals
Over 2.573%1.37Under 2.527%3.71BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Rio Ave3-0 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →
BenficaWLWWW
Rio AveDLWLL

Head to head

Rio Ave – Benfica17 January 20260-2
Benfica – Rio Ave23 September 20251-1
Rio Ave – Benfica16 March 20252-3
Benfica – Rio Ave27 October 20245-0
Rio Ave – Benfica17 May 20241-1
Benfica – Rio Ave14 January 20244-1