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Primeira Liga · Matchday 32Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense8th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Nacional15th place
MOR 43%X 29%NAC 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Moreirense 2.0 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • Moreirense lead by 73 rating points.
  • If Moreirense score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 61% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.1
Over 2.544%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Moreirense win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.34X29%3.47229%3.50
Double chance
1X71%1.40X257%1.741271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.544%2.26Under 2.556%1.80BTTS yes50%2.00BTTS no50%2.00

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Moreirense · Columns: Nacional1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Moreirense – Nacional7 March 20261-1
Nacional – Moreirense4 October 20253-2
Moreirense – Nacional27 April 20251-1
Nacional – Moreirense14 December 20241-0