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Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 32Sunday 2 May · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arouca5th place
CPA 25%X 28%ARO 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arouca lead by 144 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arouca 0.0, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • Last 5 games: Arouca 2.0 points per game, Casa Pia 1.2.
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 56% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.5
Over 2.545%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Arouca win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.07X28%3.62248%2.09
Double chance
1X52%1.92X275%1.331272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes49%2.03BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Casa Pia · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

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AroucaLDWWW

Head to head

Casa Pia – Arouca14 February 20263-2
Arouca – Casa Pia14 September 20250-2
Arouca – Casa Pia4 May 20250-0
Casa Pia – Arouca20 December 20243-1
Casa Pia – Arouca18 February 20241-0
Arouca – Casa Pia17 September 20230-1