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Primeira Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 27 December · 16:00 · Estádio da Luz
Benfica2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Sporting CP3rd place
BEN 44%X 27%SCP 29%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Benfica take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • Derby match.
  • If Benfica score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Sporting CP score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.4
Over 2.559%
Both teams score62%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Benfica win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.30X27%3.71229%3.39
Double chance
1X71%1.42X256%1.771273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.559%1.69Under 2.541%2.46BTTS yes62%1.62BTTS no38%2.62

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Benfica · Columns: Sporting CP1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sporting CP – Benfica19 April 20261-2
Benfica – Sporting CP5 December 20251-1
Benfica – Sporting CP10 May 20251-1
Sporting CP – Benfica29 December 20241-0
Sporting CP – Benfica6 April 20242-1
Benfica – Sporting CP12 November 20232-1