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Primeira Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 27 December · 16:00 · Estádio de São Miguel
Santa Clara4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Estrela Amadora12th place
SCL 53%X 27%EAM 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Santa Clara lead by 144 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Santa Clara 2.0 points per game, Estrela Amadora 0.2.
  • Santa Clara take 2.0 points per game at home.
  • If Santa Clara score first, they win 80% of the time
  • If Estrela Amadora score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.8
Over 2.542%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
153%1.88X27%3.64219%5.18
Double chance
1X81%1.24X247%2.141273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.542%2.40Under 2.558%1.72BTTS yes45%2.24BTTS no55%1.81

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
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5
Rows: Santa Clara · Columns: Estrela Amadora1-0 probability 13.8%

Form

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Head to head

Estrela Amadora – Santa Clara7 February 20261-0
Santa Clara – Estrela Amadora31 August 20250-0
Estrela Amadora – Santa Clara23 February 20250-0
Santa Clara – Estrela Amadora21 September 20241-0