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Primeira Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 27 December · 16:00 · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
Gil Vicente9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Low confidence
Arouca5th place
GIL 41%X 30%ARO 29%

Prediction

  • If Gil Vicente score first, they win 72% of the time
  • If Arouca score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.0
Over 2.540%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Gil Vicente win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
141%2.44X30%3.36229%3.41
Double chance
1X71%1.41X259%1.691270%1.42
Goals
Over 2.540%2.48Under 2.560%1.68BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Gil Vicente · Columns: Arouca1-1 probability 14.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Gil Vicente – Arouca11 May 20261-3
Arouca – Gil Vicente28 December 20252-2
Gil Vicente – Arouca10 May 20251-1
Arouca – Gil Vicente27 December 20241-1
Gil Vicente – Arouca26 April 20242-2
Arouca – Gil Vicente16 December 20233-0