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Primeira Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 27 December · 16:00 · Estádio do Marítimo
Marítimo14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Braga7th place
MAR 16%X 22%SCB 62%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Braga lead by 215 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Braga 0.6, Marítimo -0.5.
  • If Marítimo score first, they win 42% of the time
  • If Braga score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.0 – 2.1
Over 2.560%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Braga win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
116%6.15X22%4.59262%1.61
Double chance
1X38%2.63X284%1.191278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.560%1.68Under 2.540%2.47BTTS yes56%1.79BTTS no44%2.26

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Marítimo · Columns: Braga1-1 probability 10.2%

Form

Compare →
BragaWDLLW

Head to head

Marítimo – Braga12 February 20231-2
Braga – Marítimo21 August 20225-0
Braga – Marítimo15 January 20220-1
Marítimo – Braga7 August 20210-2