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Primeira Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 27 December · 16:00 · Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
Vitória de Guimarães13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Rio Ave16th place
VSC 57%X 25%RAV 18%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Vitória de Guimarães 0.6, Rio Ave -1.0.
  • Vitória de Guimarães lead by 71 rating points.
  • If Vitória de Guimarães score first, they win 81% of the time
  • If Rio Ave score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.9
Over 2.550%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Vitória de Guimarães win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
157%1.74X25%4.04218%5.63
Double chance
1X82%1.22X243%2.351275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.550%2.02Under 2.550%1.98BTTS yes50%2.02BTTS no50%1.98

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Vitória de Guimarães · Columns: Rio Ave1-1 probability 11.8%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Vitória de Guimarães – Rio Ave25 April 20262-0
Rio Ave – Vitória de Guimarães13 December 20250-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Rio Ave27 April 20253-0
Rio Ave – Vitória de Guimarães16 December 20242-2
Rio Ave – Vitória de Guimarães4 May 20242-1
Vitória de Guimarães – Rio Ave23 December 20231-0