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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Primeira Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 27 December · 16:00 · Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior
Casa Pia17th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Famalicão11th place
CPA 25%X 28%FAM 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Famalicão lead by 132 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Famalicão -0.4, Casa Pia -1.0.
  • If Casa Pia score first, they win 57% of the time
  • If Famalicão score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.4
Over 2.542%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Famalicão win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%4.08X28%3.61248%2.09
Double chance
1X52%1.92X276%1.321272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.542%2.38Under 2.558%1.72BTTS yes47%2.13BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Casa Pia · Columns: Famalicão1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

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Head to head

Famalicão – Casa Pia23 February 20262-0
Casa Pia – Famalicão21 September 20251-1
Famalicão – Casa Pia16 May 20252-1
Casa Pia – Famalicão5 January 20251-1
Famalicão – Casa Pia17 May 20241-2
Casa Pia – Famalicão13 January 20240-2