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Primeira Liga · Matchday 16Sunday 27 December · 16:00 · Estádio do Dragão
Porto1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Nacional15th place
POR 80%X 14%NAC 6%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Porto lead by 353 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Porto 3.0 points per game, Nacional 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Porto 1.4, Nacional -0.7.
  • If Porto score first, they win 93% of the time
  • If Nacional score first, they win 27% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.5
Over 2.554%
Both teams score35%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
180%1.25X14%6.9426%17.83
Double chance
1X94%1.06X220%5.001286%1.17
Goals
Over 2.554%1.84Under 2.546%2.20BTTS yes35%2.90BTTS no66%1.53

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Porto · Columns: Nacional2-0 probability 16.4%

Form

Compare →
PortoWWWWW

Head to head

Nacional – Porto15 February 20260-1
Porto – Nacional13 September 20251-0
Porto – Nacional17 May 20253-0
Nacional – Porto12 January 20252-0