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Championship · Matchday 38Wednesday 17 March · 20:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Charlton Athletic20th place
BIR 64%X 23%CHA 13%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Birmingham City lead by 163 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Charlton Athletic 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Charlton Athletic -0.6.
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 86% of the time
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 43% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.7
Over 2.545%
Both teams score42%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
164%1.56X23%4.40213%7.54
Double chance
1X87%1.15X236%2.781277%1.29
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes42%2.41BTTS no58%1.71

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Charlton Athletic1-0 probability 14.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Charlton Athletic – Birmingham City7 March 20261-0
Birmingham City – Charlton Athletic13 December 20251-1