TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 38Tuesday 16 March · 19:45 · Swansea.com Stadium
Swansea City3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Bristol City14th place
SWA 49%X 27%BRC 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Swansea City lead by 85 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Swansea City 1.8 points per game, Bristol City 1.0.
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.545%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Swansea City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.03X27%3.66223%4.26
Double chance
1X77%1.31X251%1.971273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.545%2.23Under 2.555%1.81BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Swansea City · Columns: Bristol City1-1 probability 13.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Swansea City – Bristol City21 February 20261-0
Bristol City – Swansea City22 November 20253-0
Bristol City – Swansea City9 February 20250-1
Swansea City – Bristol City29 September 20241-1
Bristol City – Swansea City10 March 20241-0
Swansea City – Bristol City2 September 20231-2