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Championship · Matchday 38Tuesday 16 March · 19:45 · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Wolverhampton4th place
SOU 56%X 25%WOL 19%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 163 rating points.
  • Southampton take 2.4 points per game at home.
  • If Southampton score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Wolverhampton score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.558%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
156%1.80X25%3.99219%5.17
Double chance
1X81%1.24X244%2.251275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.37BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Southampton · Columns: Wolverhampton1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Southampton – Wolverhampton15 March 20251-2
Wolverhampton – Southampton9 November 20242-0
Southampton – Wolverhampton11 February 20231-2
Wolverhampton – Southampton3 September 20221-0
Wolverhampton – Southampton15 January 20223-1
Southampton – Wolverhampton26 September 20210-1