TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 38Tuesday 16 March · 19:45 · MATRADE Loftus Road
QPR9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Stoke City7th place
QPR 52%X 27%STK 21%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: QPR 0.5, Stoke City -0.3.
  • If QPR score first, they win 78% of the time
  • If Stoke City score first, they win 52% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.0
Over 2.548%
Both teams score50%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a QPR win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
152%1.92X27%3.77221%4.67
Double chance
1X79%1.27X248%2.091273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.548%2.09Under 2.552%1.92BTTS yes50%1.98BTTS no50%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: QPR · Columns: Stoke City1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →
QPRDWLWL

Head to head

Stoke City – QPR17 January 20260-0
QPR – Stoke City20 September 20251-0
Stoke City – QPR29 March 20253-1
QPR – Stoke City23 November 20241-1
Stoke City – QPR14 February 20241-0
QPR – Stoke City28 November 20234-2