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Championship · Matchday 38Tuesday 16 March · 19:45 · Pride Park Stadium
Derby County23rd place
Rinvalo prediction0-2High confidence
Middlesbrough1st place
DER 17%X 23%MID 60%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 200 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Derby County score first, they win 45% of the time
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.9
Over 2.555%
Both teams score53%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-2 is the likeliest score within a Middlesbrough win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
117%5.92X23%4.33260%1.67
Double chance
1X40%2.50X283%1.201277%1.30
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.21BTTS yes53%1.90BTTS no47%2.11

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Derby County · Columns: Middlesbrough1-1 probability 11.0%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Derby County – Middlesbrough1 January 20261-0
Middlesbrough – Derby County29 November 20252-1
Middlesbrough – Derby County1 March 20251-0
Derby County – Middlesbrough17 August 20241-0
Middlesbrough – Derby County12 February 20224-1
Derby County – Middlesbrough21 August 20210-0