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Championship · Matchday 43Saturday 17 April · 15:00 · St Andrew's @ Knighthead Park
Birmingham City6th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Wrexham18th place
BIR 54%X 26%WRE 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Birmingham City 2.4 points per game, Wrexham 0.8.
  • Birmingham City lead by 70 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Birmingham City 0.3, Wrexham -0.3.
  • If Birmingham City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Wrexham score first, they win 50% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.0
Over 2.550%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Birmingham City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.84X26%3.87220%5.04
Double chance
1X80%1.25X246%2.191274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.550%2.00Under 2.550%2.00BTTS yes51%1.95BTTS no49%2.05

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Birmingham City · Columns: Wrexham1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Wrexham – Birmingham City28 August 20261-2
Birmingham City – Wrexham12 April 20262-0
Wrexham – Birmingham City3 October 20251-1