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Championship · Matchday 43Saturday 17 April · 15:00 · Fratton Park
Portsmouth11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Bristol City14th place
POR 43%X 29%BRC 28%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Portsmouth 2.2 points per game, Bristol City 1.0.
  • If Portsmouth score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 60% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.543%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Portsmouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.31X29%3.47228%3.58
Double chance
1X72%1.39X257%1.761271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.543%2.32Under 2.557%1.76BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Portsmouth · Columns: Bristol City1-1 probability 13.7%

Form

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Head to head

Bristol City – Portsmouth29 August 20262-1
Bristol City – Portsmouth1 January 20265-0
Portsmouth – Bristol City29 November 20250-1
Bristol City – Portsmouth29 December 20243-0
Portsmouth – Bristol City7 December 20243-0