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Championship · Matchday 43Saturday 17 April · 15:00 · The Den
Millwall12th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Low confidence
Southampton2nd place
MIL 35%X 27%SOU 38%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 119 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Millwall 1.4.
  • Southampton take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Millwall score first, they win 63% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 66% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.4
Over 2.553%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
135%2.89X27%3.66238%2.62
Double chance
1X62%1.62X265%1.531273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes58%1.73BTTS no42%2.37

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Millwall · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Southampton – Millwall29 August 20265-1
Southampton – Millwall1 January 20260-0
Millwall – Southampton29 November 20253-2
Southampton – Millwall24 February 20241-2
Millwall – Southampton4 November 20230-1