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Championship · Matchday 43Saturday 17 April · 15:00 · Swansea.com Stadium
Swansea City3rd place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Derby County23rd place
SWA 60%X 24%DER 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Swansea City lead by 142 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Swansea City 1.8 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Swansea City 0.3, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 46% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 8%
Expected goals1.8 – 0.8
Over 2.548%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X24%4.13216%6.18
Double chance
1X84%1.19X240%2.481276%1.32
Goals
Over 2.548%2.07Under 2.552%1.93BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Swansea City · Columns: Derby County1-0 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Derby County – Swansea City29 August 20260-3
Derby County – Swansea City14 February 20262-0
Swansea City – Derby County25 November 20251-2
Swansea City – Derby County5 April 20251-0
Derby County – Swansea City27 November 20241-2
Swansea City – Derby County9 April 20222-1