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Championship · Matchday 21Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · Ewood Park
Blackburn Rovers13th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Derby County23rd place
BLB 46%X 29%DER 26%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Blackburn Rovers 1.8 points per game, Derby County 0.4.
  • Blackburn Rovers lead by 62 rating points.
  • If Blackburn Rovers score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.4 – 1.0
Over 2.544%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Blackburn Rovers win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.19X29%3.50226%3.88
Double chance
1X74%1.35X254%1.841271%1.40
Goals
Over 2.544%2.29Under 2.556%1.78BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.96

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Blackburn Rovers · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Derby County – Blackburn Rovers28 February 20263-1
Blackburn Rovers – Derby County8 November 20251-2
Derby County – Blackburn Rovers8 March 20252-1
Blackburn Rovers – Derby County9 August 20244-2
Blackburn Rovers – Derby County15 March 20223-1
Derby County – Blackburn Rovers30 October 20211-2