TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 21Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · The Valley
Charlton Athletic20th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Swansea City3rd place
CHA 25%X 28%SWA 46%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Swansea City lead by 170 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Swansea City 1.8 points per game, Charlton Athletic 0.4.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Swansea City 0.3, Charlton Athletic -0.6.
  • If Charlton Athletic score first, they win 59% of the time
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 11%
Expected goals1.0 – 1.4
Over 2.541%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Swansea City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
125%3.93X28%3.57246%2.15
Double chance
1X54%1.87X275%1.341272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.541%2.41Under 2.559%1.71BTTS yes47%2.13BTTS no53%1.89

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Charlton Athletic · Columns: Swansea City1-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Swansea City – Charlton Athletic2 May 20263-1
Charlton Athletic – Swansea City1 November 20251-1