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Championship · Matchday 21Saturday 12 December · 15:00 · Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City17th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Southampton2nd place
CAR 23%X 24%SOU 53%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 229 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Cardiff City 1.4.
  • Southampton take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 76% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.9
Over 2.561%
Both teams score61%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.29X24%4.22253%1.89
Double chance
1X47%2.13X277%1.301276%1.31
Goals
Over 2.561%1.64Under 2.539%2.57BTTS yes61%1.63BTTS no39%2.58

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Cardiff City · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 10.8%

Form

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Head to head

Cardiff City – Southampton20 April 20242-1
Southampton – Cardiff City2 December 20232-0