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Serie A · Matchday 26Sunday 28 February · 17:30 · Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Bologna9th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0High confidence
Lecce14th place
BOL 60%X 25%LEC 16%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Bologna lead by 137 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Bologna 2.4 points per game, Lecce 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bologna 0.1, Lecce -0.6.
  • If Bologna score first, they win 83% of the time
  • If Lecce score first, they win 47% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.7 – 0.8
Over 2.545%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score1-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
160%1.68X25%4.06216%6.30
Double chance
1X84%1.19X240%2.471275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.545%2.22Under 2.555%1.82BTTS yes45%2.25BTTS no55%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bologna · Columns: Lecce1-0 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →
BolognaWLWWW
LecceLWLLL

Head to head

Lecce – Bologna11 October 20261-2
Bologna – Lecce12 April 20262-0
Lecce – Bologna28 September 20252-2
Lecce – Bologna9 February 20250-0
Bologna – Lecce2 November 20241-0
Bologna – Lecce11 February 20244-0