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Serie A · Matchday 26Sunday 28 February · 17:30 · Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Como4th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Milan5th place
COM 49%X 27%MIL 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Como take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Como score first, they win 76% of the time
  • If Milan score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.0
Over 2.547%
Both teams score51%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Como win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.04X27%3.68224%4.19
Double chance
1X76%1.31X251%1.961273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.547%2.14Under 2.553%1.88BTTS yes51%1.98BTTS no49%2.02

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Como · Columns: Milan1-1 probability 13.0%

Form

Compare →
ComoDWWWW
MilanDWWLW

Head to head

Milan – Como18 February 20261-1
Como – Milan15 January 20261-3
Milan – Como15 March 20252-1
Como – Milan14 January 20251-2