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Serie A · Matchday 26Sunday 28 February · 17:30 · Stadio Luigi Ferraris
Genoa11th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Lazio1st place
GEN 23%X 27%LAZ 50%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Lazio lead by 164 rating points.
  • Lazio take 2.4 points per game away.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Lazio 0.5, Genoa -0.4.
  • If Genoa score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Lazio score first, they win 77% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.9 – 1.5
Over 2.544%
Both teams score48%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 0-1 is the likeliest score within a Lazio win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
123%4.29X27%3.68250%2.02
Double chance
1X50%1.98X277%1.301273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.544%2.27Under 2.556%1.79BTTS yes48%2.07BTTS no52%1.93

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Genoa · Columns: Lazio1-1 probability 13.2%

Form

Compare →
GenoaWLWWW
LazioWWWWW

Head to head

Lazio – Genoa30 August 20261-0
Lazio – Genoa30 January 20263-2
Genoa – Lazio29 September 20250-3
Genoa – Lazio23 April 20250-2
Lazio – Genoa27 October 20243-0
Genoa – Lazio19 April 20240-1