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Championship · Matchday 29Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers19th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Derby County23rd place
BOL 43%X 27%DER 30%

Prediction

  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 70% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 59% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.3
Over 2.556%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Bolton Wanderers win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
143%2.34X27%3.72230%3.29
Double chance
1X70%1.44X257%1.741273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.556%1.79Under 2.544%2.27BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bolton Wanderers · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

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