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Championship · Matchday 29Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · Riverside Stadium
Middlesbrough1st place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Watford21st place
MID 75%X 17%WAT 8%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Middlesbrough lead by 238 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Middlesbrough 1.2, Watford -0.9.
  • Last 5 games: Middlesbrough 2.6 points per game, Watford 0.6.
  • If Middlesbrough score first, they win 90% of the time
  • If Watford score first, they win 31% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 5%
Expected goals2.4 – 0.7
Over 2.558%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
175%1.34X17%5.8328%12.06
Double chance
1X92%1.09X225%3.931283%1.21
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes45%2.24BTTS no55%1.81

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Middlesbrough · Columns: Watford2-0 probability 13.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Middlesbrough – Watford25 April 20265-1
Watford – Middlesbrough1 November 20253-0
Middlesbrough – Watford15 February 20250-1
Watford – Middlesbrough5 October 20242-1
Middlesbrough – Watford4 May 20243-1
Watford – Middlesbrough30 September 20232-3