TR
Picks
Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 29Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · LNER Stadium
Lincoln City16th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
QPR9th place
LIN 30%X 27%QPR 43%

Prediction

Key factors
  • QPR lead by 89 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: QPR 0.5, Lincoln City -0.1.
  • If Lincoln City score first, they win 60% of the time
  • If QPR score first, they win 70% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.3 – 1.5
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a QPR win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
130%3.32X27%3.66243%2.35
Double chance
1X57%1.74X270%1.431273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.90Under 2.547%2.11BTTS yes57%1.76BTTS no43%2.32

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Lincoln City · Columns: QPR1-1 probability 12.7%

Form

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