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Championship · Matchday 29Saturday 30 January · 15:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Cardiff City17th place
BUR 50%X 26%CAR 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Burnley lead by 109 rating points.
  • If Burnley score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Cardiff City score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.1
Over 2.554%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Burnley win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X26%3.84224%4.13
Double chance
1X76%1.32X250%1.991274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.554%1.86Under 2.546%2.17BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Cardiff City1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Cardiff City – Burnley4 March 20251-2
Burnley – Cardiff City17 August 20245-0
Burnley – Cardiff City8 May 20233-0
Cardiff City – Burnley1 October 20221-1