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Championship · Matchday 45Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton Wanderers19th place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Swansea City3rd place
BOL 26%X 26%SWA 49%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Swansea City lead by 145 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Swansea City 0.3, Bolton Wanderers -0.7.
  • Last 5 games: Swansea City 1.8 points per game, Bolton Wanderers 0.8.
  • If Bolton Wanderers score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Swansea City score first, they win 74% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.555%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Swansea City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.90X26%3.88249%2.06
Double chance
1X51%1.94X274%1.341274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.20BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bolton Wanderers · Columns: Swansea City1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

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