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Championship · Matchday 45Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · Turf Moor
Burnley22nd place
Rinvalo prediction1-2Medium confidence
Southampton2nd place
BUR 26%X 26%SOU 48%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Southampton lead by 120 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Southampton 2.6 points per game, Burnley 1.0.
  • Southampton take 1.9 points per game away.
  • If Burnley score first, they win 55% of the time
  • If Southampton score first, they win 73% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.2 – 1.7
Over 2.556%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-2 is the likeliest score within a Southampton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
126%3.78X26%3.86248%2.10
Double chance
1X52%1.91X274%1.361274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.556%1.78Under 2.544%2.28BTTS yes59%1.71BTTS no41%2.42

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Burnley · Columns: Southampton1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Burnley – Southampton21 April 20222-0
Southampton – Burnley23 October 20212-2