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Tue 17:45GS2-1VFB43%Tue 17:45SHA1-2SCP46%Tue 19:45BLB1-0STK41%Tue 19:45CHA1-0BOL41%Tue 19:45DER1-2NOR43%Tue 19:45POR1-0SWA39%Tue 19:45PNE0-1SHU42%Tue 19:45QPR2-1BUR50%Tue 19:45WAT1-0LIN38%Tue 20:00BIR1-0MIL45%Tue 20:00WBA0-1SOU42%Tue 20:00ATM1-2FCB54%Tue 20:00BAR2-1AVL52%Tue 20:00BOD2-1LIL59%Tue 20:00FEY1-2INT47%Tue 20:00LAS2-1SLO61%Tue 20:00MUN1-2ROM40%Tue 20:00VIL0-2PSG69%Wed 15:30REN2-1OLY42%Wed 17:45AEK1-2RMA59%Wed 17:45FB1-2LIV48%Wed 19:45CAR1-2WHU48%Wed 19:45WRE1-2MID52%Wed 20:00BRC0-1WOL40%
Championship · Matchday 45Saturday 24 April · 15:00 · Ashton Gate Stadium
Bristol City14th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Derby County23rd place
BRC 54%X 26%DER 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bristol City 0.6, Derby County -0.9.
  • If Bristol City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Derby County score first, they win 51% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 9%
Expected goals1.6 – 0.9
Over 2.547%
Both teams score49%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Bristol City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
154%1.86X26%3.86220%4.94
Double chance
1X80%1.25X246%2.171274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.547%2.12Under 2.553%1.89BTTS yes49%2.04BTTS no51%1.97

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bristol City · Columns: Derby County1-1 probability 12.5%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Bristol City – Derby County30 January 20260-5
Derby County – Bristol City22 August 20251-1
Bristol City – Derby County4 January 20251-0
Derby County – Bristol City31 August 20243-0
Derby County – Bristol City23 April 20221-3
Bristol City – Derby County4 December 20211-0