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Premier League · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 15:00 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Chelsea4th place
BOU 49%X 26%CHE 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • xG difference over the last 10: Bournemouth 0.5, Chelsea 0.0.
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.8 – 1.2
Over 2.558%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.04X26%3.80225%4.07
Double chance
1X75%1.33X251%1.961274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.558%1.73Under 2.542%2.36BTTS yes59%1.68BTTS no41%2.46

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bournemouth · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 11.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Bournemouth10 October 20265-1
Chelsea – Bournemouth30 December 20252-2
Bournemouth – Chelsea6 December 20250-0
Chelsea – Bournemouth14 January 20252-2
Bournemouth – Chelsea14 September 20240-1
Chelsea – Bournemouth19 May 20242-1