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Premier League · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 15:00 · American Express Stadium
Brighton3rd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Liverpool5th place
BHA 46%X 27%LIV 27%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Brighton take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Brighton score first, they win 73% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.555%
Both teams score58%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brighton win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
146%2.15X27%3.71227%3.76
Double chance
1X73%1.36X254%1.871273%1.37
Goals
Over 2.555%1.83Under 2.545%2.20BTTS yes58%1.74BTTS no42%2.36

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brighton · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 12.2%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Liverpool – Brighton25 October 20262-0
Brighton – Liverpool21 March 20262-1
Liverpool – Brighton13 December 20252-0
Brighton – Liverpool19 May 20253-2
Liverpool – Brighton2 November 20242-1
Liverpool – Brighton31 March 20242-1