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Premier League · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 15:00 · Hill Dickinson Stadium
Everton14th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1High confidence
Arsenal1st place
EVE 18%X 25%ARS 56%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 213 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Everton 1.0.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Everton -0.2.
  • If Everton score first, they win 50% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 82% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.6
Over 2.543%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
118%5.42X25%3.97256%1.77
Double chance
1X44%2.29X282%1.231275%1.34
Goals
Over 2.543%2.33Under 2.557%1.75BTTS yes45%2.25BTTS no55%1.80

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Everton · Columns: Arsenal0-1 probability 13.8%

Form

Compare →
EvertonDWDLL
ArsenalLWWWW

Head to head

Arsenal – Everton24 October 20262-0
Arsenal – Everton14 March 20262-0
Everton – Arsenal20 December 20250-1
Everton – Arsenal5 April 20251-1
Arsenal – Everton14 December 20240-0
Arsenal – Everton19 May 20242-1