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Premier League · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-0High confidence
Aston Villa10th place
MCI 63%X 22%AVL 15%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 145 rating points.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Manchester City 0.6, Aston Villa -0.3.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 84% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 41% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals2.1 – 0.9
Over 2.558%
Both teams score54%
Likeliest score2-0
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
163%1.58X22%4.51215%6.80
Double chance
1X85%1.17X237%2.711278%1.28
Goals
Over 2.558%1.72Under 2.542%2.39BTTS yes54%1.86BTTS no46%2.16

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Aston Villa2-0 probability 10.7%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Manchester City24 October 20262-1
Manchester City – Aston Villa24 May 20261-2
Aston Villa – Manchester City26 October 20251-0
Manchester City – Aston Villa22 April 20252-1
Aston Villa – Manchester City21 December 20242-1
Manchester City – Aston Villa3 April 20244-1