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Premier League · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 15:00 · Elland Road
Leeds United11th place
Rinvalo prediction1-0Medium confidence
Sunderland20th place
LEE 49%X 28%SUN 23%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Leeds United lead by 76 rating points.
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 77% of the time
  • If Sunderland score first, they win 56% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals1.5 – 0.9
Over 2.543%
Both teams score47%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 1-0 is the likeliest score within a Leeds United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
149%2.05X28%3.60223%4.29
Double chance
1X77%1.30X251%1.961272%1.38
Goals
Over 2.543%2.34Under 2.557%1.74BTTS yes47%2.12BTTS no53%1.90

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leeds United · Columns: Sunderland1-1 probability 13.3%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Sunderland – Leeds United25 October 20260-0
Leeds United – Sunderland3 March 20260-1
Sunderland – Leeds United28 December 20251-1
Leeds United – Sunderland17 February 20252-1
Sunderland – Leeds United4 October 20242-2
Leeds United – Sunderland9 April 20240-0