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Premier League · Matchday 37Sunday 23 May · 15:00 · St James Park
Newcastle United13th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Crystal Palace18th place
NEW 50%X 26%CRY 24%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Newcastle United lead by 62 rating points.
  • If Newcastle United score first, they win 75% of the time
  • If Crystal Palace score first, they win 53% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.555%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Newcastle United win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
150%2.01X26%3.80224%4.20
Double chance
1X76%1.31X250%1.991274%1.36
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.34

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Newcastle United · Columns: Crystal Palace1-1 probability 11.9%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Crystal Palace – Newcastle United25 October 20260-2
Crystal Palace – Newcastle United12 April 20262-1
Newcastle United – Crystal Palace4 January 20262-0
Newcastle United – Crystal Palace16 April 20255-0
Crystal Palace – Newcastle United30 November 20241-1
Crystal Palace – Newcastle United24 April 20242-0