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Premier League · Matchday 35Saturday 8 May · 15:00 · Vitality Stadium
Bournemouth8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Manchester United17th place
BOU 48%X 27%MUN 25%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Last 5 games: Bournemouth 1.8 points per game, Manchester United 0.6.
  • If Bournemouth score first, they win 74% of the time
  • If Manchester United score first, they win 55% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.7 – 1.2
Over 2.555%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Bournemouth win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
148%2.08X27%3.77225%3.94
Double chance
1X75%1.34X252%1.931273%1.36
Goals
Over 2.555%1.82Under 2.545%2.22BTTS yes57%1.74BTTS no43%2.35

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Bournemouth · Columns: Manchester United1-1 probability 12.1%

Form

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Head to head

Manchester United – Bournemouth25 October 20260-3
Bournemouth – Manchester United20 March 20262-2
Manchester United – Bournemouth15 December 20254-4
Bournemouth – Manchester United27 April 20251-1
Manchester United – Bournemouth22 December 20240-3
Bournemouth – Manchester United13 April 20242-2