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Premier League · Matchday 35Saturday 8 May · 15:00 · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Tottenham8th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Low confidence
Chelsea4th place
TOT 38%X 28%CHE 34%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Derby match.
  • If Tottenham score first, they win 67% of the time
  • If Chelsea score first, they win 63% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.5 – 1.4
Over 2.555%
Both teams score59%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Tottenham win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
138%2.61X28%3.59234%2.96
Double chance
1X66%1.51X262%1.621272%1.39
Goals
Over 2.555%1.81Under 2.545%2.24BTTS yes59%1.69BTTS no41%2.45

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Tottenham · Columns: Chelsea1-1 probability 12.4%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Chelsea – Tottenham24 October 20260-2
Chelsea – Tottenham19 May 20262-1
Tottenham – Chelsea1 November 20250-1
Chelsea – Tottenham3 April 20251-0
Tottenham – Chelsea8 December 20243-4
Chelsea – Tottenham2 May 20242-0