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Premier League · Matchday 35Saturday 8 May · 15:00 · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City2nd place
Rinvalo prediction2-1High confidence
Liverpool5th place
MCI 55%X 25%LIV 20%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Manchester City lead by 102 rating points.
  • Manchester City take 2.2 points per game at home.
  • If Manchester City score first, they win 79% of the time
  • If Liverpool score first, they win 48% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 6%
Expected goals1.9 – 1.1
Over 2.556%
Both teams score56%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Manchester City win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
155%1.81X25%3.99220%5.05
Double chance
1X80%1.25X245%2.231275%1.33
Goals
Over 2.556%1.77Under 2.544%2.29BTTS yes56%1.78BTTS no44%2.28

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Manchester City · Columns: Liverpool1-1 probability 11.3%

Form

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Head to head

Liverpool – Manchester City11 October 20260-3
Liverpool – Manchester City8 February 20261-2
Manchester City – Liverpool9 November 20253-0
Manchester City – Liverpool23 February 20250-2
Liverpool – Manchester City1 December 20242-0
Liverpool – Manchester City10 March 20241-1