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Premier League · Matchday 35Saturday 8 May · 15:00 · Elland Road
Leeds United12th place
Rinvalo prediction0-1Medium confidence
Arsenal1st place
LEE 19%X 26%ARS 55%

Prediction

Key factors
  • Arsenal lead by 201 rating points.
  • Last 5 games: Arsenal 2.4 points per game, Leeds United 0.6.
  • xG difference over the last 10: Arsenal 0.9, Leeds United -0.3.
  • If Leeds United score first, they win 51% of the time
  • If Arsenal score first, they win 81% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 10%
Expected goals0.8 – 1.6
Over 2.543%
Both teams score45%
Likeliest score0-1
Probabilities and fair odds
Result
119%5.18X26%3.88255%1.82
Double chance
1X45%2.22X281%1.241274%1.35
Goals
Over 2.543%2.33Under 2.557%1.75BTTS yes45%2.21BTTS no55%1.82

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Leeds United · Columns: Arsenal0-1 probability 13.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Arsenal – Leeds United10 October 20262-1
Leeds United – Arsenal31 January 20260-4
Arsenal – Leeds United23 August 20255-0
Arsenal – Leeds United1 April 20234-1
Leeds United – Arsenal16 October 20220-1
Arsenal – Leeds United8 May 20222-1