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Premier League · Matchday 35Saturday 8 May · 15:00 · Brentford Community Stadium
Brentford6th place
Rinvalo prediction2-1Medium confidence
Aston Villa10th place
BRE 44%X 27%AVL 29%

Prediction

  • If Brentford score first, they win 71% of the time
  • If Aston Villa score first, they win 58% of the time
  • Chance of a goalless draw 7%
Expected goals1.6 – 1.2
Over 2.553%
Both teams score57%
Likeliest score1-1

Rinvalo's pick 2-1 is the likeliest score within a Brentford win. The single likeliest score is 1-1, but its result is less likely overall.

Probabilities and fair odds
Result
144%2.28X27%3.65229%3.49
Double chance
1X71%1.40X256%1.781273%1.38
Goals
Over 2.553%1.88Under 2.547%2.14BTTS yes57%1.75BTTS no43%2.33

Fair odds = 1 ÷ probability: the price the model gives, with no bookmaker margin.

Score probabilities (%)
012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Rows: Brentford · Columns: Aston Villa1-1 probability 12.6%

Form

Compare →

Head to head

Aston Villa – Brentford10 October 20262-2
Aston Villa – Brentford1 February 20260-1
Brentford – Aston Villa23 August 20251-0
Brentford – Aston Villa8 March 20250-1
Aston Villa – Brentford4 December 20243-1
Aston Villa – Brentford6 April 20243-3